Sabato's Crystal Ball

''Sabato's Crystal Ball'' is an online political newsletter and election handicapper. It predicts electoral outcomes for the United States House of Representatives, United States Senate, U.S. governors, and U.S. presidential races, with electoral and political analysis. A publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the ''Crystal Ball'' was founded by political analyst Larry Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.

History

2002

The ''Crystal Ball'' was first launched in September 2002, evolving from pre-election presentations given by founder Larry J. Sabato. For the 2002 midterm elections, the ''Crystal Ball'' tracked every U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race and the top 50 U.S. House of Representatives races. In 2002, the website received 160,000 hits, averaging over 5,000 hits per day over the last three weeks of the campaign, with over 1,500 people subscribing to its weekly e-mail updates.

2004

Following a post-election hiatus, the ''Crystal Ball'' re-launched on January 27, 2003, to cover the 2004 election cycle. In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the ''Crystal Ball'' sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention in Boston and the Republican National Convention in New York City. On Election Day, the ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor's races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).

2006

The Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism found that the ''Crystal Ball'' "probably came closer than any other of the 10 top political predictors" on the 2006 election cycle. During the 2006 election cycle the ''Crystal Ball'' added House Race Editor Dave Wasserman and expanded its election coverage and analysis. The ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted a 29-seat pick-up for Democrats in the House and 6 seat pick-up in the Senate.

2008

In August 2007, the ''Crystal Ball'' added political analyst and author Rhodes Cook to its team, a veteran of ''Congressional Quarterly'' and editor of the America Votes series. Also in 2007, House Race Editor Dave Wasserman left to assume that same position at the ''Cook Political Report'' and was replaced by Isaac Wood.

In July 2008, when many analysts were predicting a tight race for President, the ''Crystal Ball'' published an essay which correctly projected that Barack Obama would win in a near-landslide.

In the elections of November 2008, the ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted 421 of 435 U.S. House races (97%), 34 of 35 U.S. Senate races (97%), and 11 of 11 gubernatorial races (100%). In the presidential election, the ''Crystal Ball'' predicted an Electoral College victory of 364 to 174 for Democrat Barack Obama, a total which was just one vote off of the final tally. They correctly predicted 48 out of 50 states, their only errors being in Missouri, where they thought Obama would win, and in Indiana, where they thought McCain would win (the opposite happened in these 2 states), and they also inaccurately predicted McCain would win NE-2.

2010

In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives. The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans. The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.

2012

In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency 290 electoral votes to 248 for Mitt Romney; there would be no change in composition of the Senate with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives making it 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.
Actually, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes, to Republican challenger Mitt Romney's 206. In the Senate, the Democrats gained a net of two seats, leaving them with a total of 53 seats. The Republicans lost a net of two seats, ending with a total of 45 seats. The remaining two senators, both independents, caucused with the Democrats, leaving the majority party with a combined total of 55 seats. House Republicans retained a 234 to 201 seat majority.

2014

In 2014, the Crystal Ball predicted that Republicans would win control of the U.S. Senate and hold the House, while also retaining the majority of state governorships. However, they underestimated the magnitude of Republican victories, incorrectly calling the result in the North Carolina Senate race, where Republican Thom Tillis defeated Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, and predicting that Republicans would pick up nine net House seats, when they actually gained thirteen. Additionally, they predicted that the Democrats would defeat incumbent Republican Governors in Florida, Kansas and Maine, while retaining their seats in Illinois and Maryland. Republicans ended up winning all five races, although the Crystal Ball correctly predicted the Republican gains of open Democratic-held governorships in Arkansas and Massachusetts, and the defeats of Republican incumbents Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania and Sean Parnell

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